Dax Index News: Forecast Eyes 21,500–22,500 Range Amid Trade and ECB Signals

DAX Opens Lower as US Tariff Uncertainty Saps Risk Appetite

The DAX slipped 0.34% to 21,888 at the open on Thursday, April 24, as investors considered the latest shift in US trade policies. A fresh pivot from President Trump on China tariffs rattled global sentiment, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that any relief would hinge on Beijing’s cooperation, not unilateral action.

Nonetheless, the potential for Washington and Beijing to resume trade negotiations eased fears of a prolonged US-China trade war, limiting the early losses.

Sector Performance: Autos Mixed on EV Car Sales Surge and Tariffs

Car sales figures impressed on April 24. The ACEA reported a 10.5% increase in new EU registrations of German hybrid-electric cars in Q1 2025. German new battery electric car sales grew 38.9% in the first quarter.

However, reports of President Trump planning to maintain auto tariffs weighed on investor sentiment. The Kobeissi Letter reported:

“President Trump says he is NOT considering changes to automobile and auto part tariffs. Just 1 hour ago, FT reported that President Trump will be exempting carmakers from some US tariffs. Auto stocks have gone from green to red after hours.”

Daimler Truck Holding slid 1.88%, with Mercedes-Benz Group, Volkswagen, and BMW posting early losses.

On the earnings calendar, banks and autos will be in the spotlight. BNP Paribas and Renault are among the big names releasing earnings reports on Thursday.

German Business Sentiment in Focus

German business sentiment data may influence investor sentiment early in the European session. Economists expect the Ifo Business Climate Index to fall to 85.2 in April, down from 86.7 in March.

A sharper decline may signal waning business investment, potentially weighing on the labor market and consumer spending. These trends could dampen inflation, supporting a more dovish ECB stance. Rising bets on multiple ECB rate cuts could bolster demand for German-listed stocks.

Bets on multiple ECB rate cuts could drive demand for DAX-listed stocks. However, US trade developments remain a key driver for risk assets.

US Markets Rally on Trade Developments

US equities rallied on April 23 amid optimism toward a US-China trade deal. However, Trump’s U-turn on China tariffs led to a late pullback. The Nasdaq Composite Index soared 2.50% on Wednesday, April 23, while the Dow and the S&P 500 posted solid gains of 1.07% and 1.67%, respectively.

US economic indicators had a limited impact on markets despite services sector activity slowing in April. The S&P Global Services PMI fell from 54.4 in March to 51.4 in April. Accounting for around 80% of the US GDP, further weakness in service sector activity may reignite concerns about a potential recession. On April 22, the IMF raised its estimate of a 2025 US recession to 40%, up from 27% in October.

US Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders Ahead

Later today, US jobless claims may influence risk sentiment. Economists forecast initial jobless claims to rise from 215k (week ending April 12) to 221k (week ending April 19).

A spike above 250k could fuel speculation about a US recession, impacting risk assets. Conversely, a lower jobless claims print may signal a resilient labor market, bolstering demand for DAX-listed stocks.

Other stats include durable goods orders. However, barring a surprise slump in orders, the numbers will likely play second fiddle to the labor market data.

Near-Term Outlook

The DAX’s near-term outlook depends on key economic indicators, trade developments, and central bank signals.

• Bearish Scenario: Rising US-EU trade tensions, weak economic data, and hawkish central bank rhetoric could send the DAX toward 21,500.
• Bullish Scenario: Progress on a trade deal, upbeat data, and dovish central bank chatter could drive the DAX toward 22,500.

DAX Technical Indicators

Daily Chart

The DAX continues to trade above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)— signaling sustained bullish momentum.

A breakout above the April 23 high of 22,044 may open the door to 22,350. A move through 22,350 may signal a move toward 22,500.

On the downside, a fall below the 50-day EMA could expose the 21,500 handle.

Final Thoughts

Market volatility remains elevated amid tariff uncertainty. US tariff signals, ECB rate expectations, and upcoming US labor market data are likely to steer near-term direction. With central bank communication and geopolitical headlines likely to influence sentiment, traders should stay alert to macro developments and technical shifts in the coming sessions.