Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Metals Hold Gains as Fed Cuts Loom and Dollar Slips

Market Overview

Gold prices (XAU/USD) remained firm above $3,300 during Thursday’s Asian session, supported by expectations of monetary easing and a pullback in the U.S. dollar. Although the broader market embraced a risk-on tone amid renewed optimism over U.S.-China trade negotiations, gold maintained a modest bid, trading around $3,312 after trimming early session gains.

Silver (XAG/USD) hovered near $33.40, down slightly from intraday highs, with sentiment caught between economic uncertainty and improved trade headlines. While both metals typically soften in risk-on environments, a weakening greenback and prospects of Federal Reserve rate cuts helped cushion downside pressure.

Fed Policy Outlook and Beige Book Fuel Rate Cut Expectations

Markets are increasingly pricing in a June rate cut, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing odds above 60% for at least one reduction this summer. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, released Wednesday, pointed to slowing labor market momentum and tepid consumer spending.

“Growth is modest and uneven,” the report noted, signaling that conditions could soon warrant a policy response.

Non-yielding assets like gold benefit from a lower interest rate environment. With traders anticipating as many as three cuts in 2025, gold’s resilience reflects a hedge against weakening macroeconomic data and declining yields.

Dollar Eases, Supporting Precious Metals

The U.S. Dollar Index slipped from recent highs as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed reports of unilateral tariff reductions, underscoring continued uncertainty around the U.S.-China trade dialogue. A weaker dollar typically boosts demand for dollar-denominated assets, lending support to bullion.

A preliminary reading of S&P Global’s April PMI showed mixed results: manufacturing ticked higher, while services slowed, adding to investor caution. Looking ahead, Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders will provide the next major data points.

While gold remains range-bound, its ability to hold above $3,300 amid improving sentiment suggests persistent underlying demand driven by macro and policy uncertainty.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold holds above $3,300 with support at $3,297 intact; silver steadies near $33.40. Traders await U.S. data for direction as Fed rate cut bets underpin short-term demand.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is stabilizing near $3,323 after recovering from a dip toward $3,297, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the $3,500 swing high. Price remains sandwiched between the 50 EMA at $3,340 and trendline support just above $3,297, a zone that bulls are keen to defend.

If $3,374 breaks, a push toward $3,427 becomes viable, but a rejection here keeps the range intact. On the flip side, any slip below $3,297 could drive a pullback toward the 50% Fib at $3,235.

The 200 EMA around $3,222 adds further support. Momentum is cooling, but the broader trend remains constructive as long as $3,297 holds. Keep an eye on volume near resistance for breakout confirmation.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is holding firm near $33.40, riding a rising trendline that has guided prices steadily higher since early April. The breakout above the $33.10 pivot is a bullish signal, especially as the price now hovers comfortably above both the 50 EMA at $32.88 and the 200 EMA at $32.43.

Momentum picked up after clearing this support zone, with bulls now eyeing resistance at $33.96. If that cracks, the next key level sits near $34.56. A failure to hold $33.10 would invite downside pressure toward $32.10.

The overall structure remains constructive, but a sustained push above $34.00 is needed to confirm bullish continuation. Watch how price behaves at $33.96—it’s the short-term gatekeeper.