Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Market Eyes OPEC+ Discord and U.S.–China Trade Shifts

Market Overview

Oil prices rebounded modestly on Thursday following a near 2% drop, as traders assessed conflicting signals on supply and trade policy. Market focus sharpened on OPEC+ dynamics after reports that several members may push for accelerated output increases, raising concerns of renewed internal discord.

Kazakhstan, contributing 2% to global production, signaled it would prioritize national interests over quota compliance—fueling fears of a broader rift. Meanwhile, tariff negotiations between the U.S. and China offered support, though uncertainty remains.

Analysts warn a prolonged trade standoff could halve China’s oil demand growth to 90,000 barrels/day. Fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran added further geopolitical complexity.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is stuck in a tight range just below $3.00, clinging to the lower end of a descending channel. The price action remains capped by the $3.053 pivot and the 50 EMA overhead at $3.097, both of which have held back recent recovery attempts.

Bears continue to pressure prices beneath the trendline, while support around $2.957 is being quietly tested. A break below this could open the door toward $2.887.

Bulls need a decisive push above $3.053 to regain ground and challenge $3.137. Until then, momentum favors the downside, with the broader trend firmly bearish. Watch for a breakout from the channel to hint at a directional shift.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

Crude oil prices are hovering around $62.24, caught in a tug-of-war between technical support and sliding momentum. After breaking below the $62.50 pivot, WTI is testing the trendline from early April—a level bulls have protected before.

Resistance looms at $62.78 (50 EMA), while the 200 EMA at $63.44 adds pressure overhead. If oil can reclaim $62.78, it may retest $63.44, but sellers are likely to defend that zone aggressively. On the downside, $61.49 is critical—losing it could expose $59.87.

With price compressing just above trendline support, this range is setting up for a decisive move. Momentum is fading, but the broader trend isn’t broken—yet. Keep an eye on volume and how price behaves at $61.49.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is fading near $65.07 after slipping below its pivot point at $65.62. This pullback follows a sharp rejection at the $68.45 resistance zone, where price failed to maintain its breakout attempt. The $66.45–$67.14 band, where both the 50 and 200 EMAs converge, is now acting as a ceiling.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $63.73, and a break below could expose $61.95. Price action is currently stuck between converging trendlines, suggesting a breakout—or breakdown—is looming.

Until bulls reclaim $65.62 with volume, the bias skews cautious. Brent needs a strong push above the EMAs to reset upward momentum; otherwise, downside risk builds beneath the triangle.