US Dollar Forecast: DXY Under Pressure While Gold Surges on Safe-Haven Demand

Dollar Extends Slide on Trade Tensions, Gold Hits New High

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continued its downward slide on Wednesday, losing ground to both safe-haven and risk-sensitive currencies as global trade tensions escalated. With the dollar weakening further, gold surged to a fresh record high, reflecting rising investor demand for alternative stores of value.

Trade Policy Uncertainty Drives Capital Reallocation

U.S. President Trump’s order to investigate new tariffs on critical mineral imports has intensified concerns over global trade disruptions, particularly targeting China’s dominance in the sector. This follows recent tariffs on Japanese goods and precedes negotiations with Japan, South Korea, and the U.K. The uncertainty around these deals has traders reassessing dollar exposure, driving repositioning into non-dollar assets and currencies.

DXY Under Pressure Across Majors

The greenback saw widespread selling pressure. The euro climbed 0.9% to $1.1382, the yen strengthened to 142.03, its lowest level since September, and the Swiss franc rallied to 0.815, near a 10-year high. Market speculation that the Swiss National Bank may not intervene has reinforced franc strength. Overall, the DXY faces sustained downside momentum with limited support levels below its current range.

Gold Rallies on Dollar Weakness and Safe-Haven Demand

Gold (XAU/USD) surged to an all-time high of $3,319.60, driven by safe-haven flows and dollar softness. The recent rally broke through Monday’s bearish reversal, setting a new pivot level at $3,137.91. As concerns over bond market stability grow—fueled by speculation China may be offloading U.S. Treasuries—gold has attracted strong buying interest, supported further by subdued U.S. yields and recession fears.

Retail Data Overlooked as Focus Remains on Trade Risk

While March retail sales rose 1.4%, topping forecasts, the data had limited impact on dollar sentiment. The market remains fixated on geopolitical developments, with monetary policy taking a backseat for now. Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming comments may stir some short-term volatility, but traders are watching trade negotiations for broader directional cues.

Outlook: DXY to Remain Heavy as Gold Extends Gains

The near-term outlook for DXY remains bearish, with the index likely to stay under pressure unless there’s clear progress in trade negotiations. Gold’s break above $3,319.60 reinforces bullish sentiment, and any dollar recovery would likely need a strong shift in risk perception or a reversal in U.S. trade posture. For now, the market bias favors continued dollar softness and gold strength.

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