United States Interest Rate

Fed policymakers expected inflation to be pushed higher this year due to the impact of elevated tariffs, though they acknowledged considerable uncertainty around the magnitude and persistence of these effects, minutes from the last FOMC meeting in March 2025 showed. At the same time, a majority of officials highlighted the possibility that inflationary pressures from various sources could prove more persistent than previously anticipated. Nearly all participants viewed inflation risks as tilted to the upside, while risks to employment were seen as skewed to the downside. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% during its March 2025 meeting, extending the pause in its rate-cut cycle that began in January, in line with expectations. The Fed also raised their expectations for inflation for 2025 and 2026 and downgraded their 2025 growth forecasts, while still anticipating reducing interest rates by around 50 bps this year, the same as in the December projection.